SPORTS ADVISORS
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 23
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(11) Georgetown (18-7, 11-10 ATS) at Louisville (18-9, 8-14 ATS)
Louisville looks to boost its NCAA Tournament resume when it welcomes the 11th-ranked Hoyas to Freedom Hall for a Big East battle.
Georgetown fell behind No. 5 Syracuse by 23 points in the second half on Thursday and made a valiant comeback, only to fall short 75-71 as a two-point home favorite. The Hoyas have dropped four of their last seven games both SU and ATS, though two of the victories were double-digit wins over No. 8 Duke and No. 2 Villanova. They now sit in a tie for sixth place in the Big East standings, one game behind Louisville. The SU winner has cashed in each of Georgetown’s last 11 contests.
The Cardinals have won three in a row and five of their last six, but they continue to struggle to cover pointspreads, going 1-4 ATS in their last five and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 (all Big East games). On Saturday, Louisville went to DePaul and prevailed 68-59, falling just short as an 11½-point road chalk. The Cardinals have won four straight road games (all in conference), going just 1-3 ATS, and they’re 6-1 SU and 2-5 ATS when hosting conference foes.
Louisville pummeled the Hoyas in last year’s lone meeting, rolling 76-58 as a one-point road chalk. The Cardinals, who had gone 2-4 SU in the previous six against Georgetown, have covered in each of the last three clashes. These teams have squared off six times in since 2000, and the favorite, road team and SU winner are all 4-1-1 ATS.
Georgetown is 7-4 on the highway this year (6-4 ATS in lined games), while Louisville is 14-3 at home (4-8 ATS).
The Hoyas have failed to cover in 23 of their last 32 conference games and seven of 10 as an underdog of less than seven points, but they’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven when coming off a defeat and 4-1 ATS in their last five following a non-cover. Louisville is 45-21-2 ATS in their last 68 Big East contests, but other than that, the Cardinals are in pointspread freefalls of 3-9 overall, 1-5 at home, 3-7 against winning teams, 2-6 on Tuesday, 0-4 as a favorite and 0-4 after a SU victory.
Georgetown has topped the total in seven straight games after a SU victory, six straight after a non-cover and eight of 11 as an underdog, while the over has cashed in eight of Louisville’s last 11 home games (all as a favorite). Conversely, the under is on runs of 6-2 for the Hoyas on the highway, 7-2 for the Hoyas on Tuesday, 4-1 for the Cardinals overall (all in conference) and 5-1 for the Cardinals after an ATS setback. Finally, four of the six meetings between these teams – including two of three at Freedom Hall – during the past decade stayed below the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE and UNDER
(6) Kansas State (22-4, 14-6-1 ATS) at Texas Tech (16-10, 12-8 ATS)
The Wildcats take a five-game winning streak into United Spirit Arena in Lubbock, Texas, for a Big 12 contest against Texas Tech, which has dropped three in a row.
Kansas State took a two-point halftime lead at Oklahoma on Saturday, then rolled from there, winning 83-68 and easily cashing as a 5½-point road chalk. Although the Wildcats are just 3-2 ATS during their winning streak, they have cashed in five of their last seven overall. Also, they’ve won five straight road games, all in the Big 12 (3-1-1 ATS). During the current five-game overall winning streak, Kansas State is averaging 79.4 ppg (47.6 percent shooting) and yielding 67.6 ppg (41.9 percent).
The Red Raiders gave Texas a good fight Saturday, but came up on the short end of a 71-67 decision, though it did cash as a 6½-point home underdog. The Red Raiders won 13 of their first 14 home games, but they’ve since lost their last two by a total of six points. Throw in a 94-89 overtime loss to Missouri, and Texas Tech’s three home defeats (all in conference) were by a total of 11 points.
Kansas State won last year’s only meeting with Texas Tech 85-73, barely covering as an 11½-point home favorite. Prior to that, the Red Raiders had gone 6-1 SU and ATS in this rivalry, and they’ve covered in five straight meetings in Lubbock. The home team is 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 regular-season tussles, and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 13 clashes.
The Wildcats are on a slew of positive ATS runs, including 13-4-1 overall, 6-2-1 on the road, 5-2 in Big 12 games, 10-3-1 as a favorite, 4-1-1 as a road favorite, 6-1-1 when laying less than seven points, 5-0 on Tuesday, 11-4-1 versus winning teams and 9-4-1 after both a SU or ATS victory. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has now cashed in eight of its last 10 at home and six of seven as a ‘dog of less than seven points, but it is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 on Tuesday.
K-State has stayed under the total in five of its last seven Tuesday games, and the under is 4-1 in Tech’s last five at home. From there, though, the “over” is on runs of 7-2-1 for the Wildcats on the road, 17-5-1 for the Wildcats as a road favorite, 6-2 for the Wildcats after an ATS win, 37-17-2 for the Red Raiders overall, 26-11-2 for the Red Raiders as an underdog, 13-3-2 for the Red Raiders as a pup of less than seven points, 20-9-2 for the Red Raiders after a loss and 15-7-1 for the Red Raiders after a spread-cover. Also, the last two matchups in this rivalry have topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(19) Tennessee (20-6, 10-12-1 ATS) at Florida (19-8, 12-10 ATS)The Gators hope to end a six-game series losing streak to Tennessee while at the same time enhancing their NCAA Tournament chances when they welcome the 19th-ranked Volunteers to the O’Connell Center for an SEC showdown.
Tennessee had little trouble with South Carolina on Saturday, rolling to a 63-55 victory and cashing as a 1½-point road favorite following a 2-7 ATS slump. The Vols have won two in a row and five of their last seven, splitting four road games during this stretch. Bruce Pearl’s squad is 3-3 SU in conference roadies, but has failed to cover in four of the last five on the highway.
Florida went to Ole Miss on Saturday and scored a key 64-61 victory as a five-point road underdog, halting a three-game ATS slide. Since dropping their first two SEC games, the Gators have won eight of their last 11 overall, going 8-2 in SEC contests during this stretch (7-3 ATS). That includes five straight conference home wins (3-2 ATS). For the season, Billy Donovan’s team has won 12 of 15 home games, averaging 73.1 ppg (43.8 percent shooting) while holding visitors to 60.7 ppg (40 percent).
Tennessee survived a thriller against the Gators in Knoxville on Jan. 31, winning 61-60 for its sixth straight victory in this rivalry. However, the Vols came up way short as an 8½-point home favorite, ending a 5-0 ATS streak against Florida. Still, Tennessee is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings (9-3 ATS), and it has cashed in 13 of the last 17 clashes overall, going 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Gainesville.
Aside from their pointspread success against Florida, the Vols are in ATS ruts of 2-7 overall (all in SEC play), 1-4 on the road and 6-13 following a spread-cover. However, they’re 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 as an underdog of less than seven points. Florida’s 5-2 ATS run in the SEC is offset by negative pointspread streaks of 3-7 at home, 4-9 as a home chalk of less than seven points and 1-4 on Tuesday.
These teams have gone over the total in five of the last seven meetings in Florida. Other than that, though, Tennessee is on “under” runs of 23-8 overall, 24-9 on the road, 19-7 in conference, 20-8 as an underdog, 10-2 as a ‘dog of less than seven points, 6-2 on Tuesday, 19-7 after a SU victory and 11-4 after a spread-cover, while the Gators carry “under” trends of 17-7 overall, 12-4 at home, 14-3 as a favorite, 12-2 as a home chalk, 7-0 when favored by less than seven points, 27-10-1 following a win and 9-3 after a spread-cover. Also, last month’s meeting in Tennessee stayed way under the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
New Orleans (30-26, 28-28 ATS) at Cleveland (43-14, 28-28-1 ATS)
The suddenly slumping Cavaliers return to Quicken Loans Arena looking to get back on track with a victory over the Hornets.
New Orleans, which continues to play without All-Star point guard Chris Paul (knee surgery), is coming off back-to-back home wins over Indiana (107-101 as a 4½-point favorite on Friday) and Houston (102-94 as a two-point home chalk on Sunday). The Hornets concluded their four-game homestand at 3-1 SU and ATS, and they’re now 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games. Additionally, they’ve won nine of their last 13 on the highway, going 10-3 ATS (6-0 ATS last six).
Cleveland has followed up a 13-game winning streak with three consecutive SU and ATS losses, falling to Denver at home on Thursday (118-116 in overtime) then suffering road losses at Charlotte on Friday (110-93) and Orlando on Sunday (101-95). The Cavaliers have also followed up a six-game spread-covering win streak (4-0 ATS at home) by going 1-5 ATS in their last six (1-3 ATS at home). For the season, LeBron James and his crew have won 24 of 28 at Quicken Loans Arena, but they’re only 12-16 ATS.
The home team has won two in a row and five of the last six in this rivalry, all SU and ATS. In last year’s clash in Cleveland, the Cavs rolled 92-78 as a 2½-point chalk, ending an 0-3 SU and ATS slide against New Orleans. The Hornets are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight visits to Quicken Loans Arena, and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last eight series meetings.
In addition to covering the spread in five of their last six games overall and six straight on the highway, the Hornets are on ATS runs of 4-0 against the Eastern Conference, 4-0 when playing after one day off and 8-0 on the road against opponents with a winning home record. Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall and 2-5 ATS in its last seven on Tuesday, but from there the Cavs are on pointspread surges of 11-4 against the Southwest Division, 27-11 after a SU defeat and 7-2 when going after one day of rest.
New Orleans carries “over” trends of 10-4 overall, 6-0 on the road, 5-1 against the Eastern Conference, 6-1-1 against winning teams, 18-5 after one day of rest and 6-2 on Tuesday. Likewise, Cleveland is riding “over” streaks of 5-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 at home, 4-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 versus Western Conference foes. Finally, the over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 Cavs-Hornets meetings overall and 5-1-1 in the last seven battles in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Phoenix (34-23, 31-26 ATS) at Oklahoma City (33-21 SU and ATS)
The red-hot Thunder put their nine-game winning streak on the line when they welcome the Suns to the Ford Center.
Phoenix hits the road following a pair of easy home victories over the Hawks on Friday (88-80 as a four-point favorite) and Kings on Sunday (104-88 as a 9½-point chalk). The Suns have won eight of their last 10 overall SU and ATS, and they’ve followed up a five-game road losing skid (1-4 ATS) by winning five of their last six on the highway (SU and ATS). Also, the winner has covered the pointspread in 16 of Phoenix’s last 17 games, including the last 12 in a row.
Oklahoma City is coming off a pair of narrow road wins, edging the Knicks in overtime on Saturday 121-118 and the Timberwolves on Sunday 109-107. The Thunder failed to cover as a five-point favorite in both games – ending a 5-0 ATS run – but they’ve still won nine in a row overall, going 4-0 at home (3-1 ATS) during this stretch. Going back to Dec. 23, Oklahoma City has won 20 of 27 games, and it is 18-10 ATS in its last 18.
Forward Kevin Durant continues to play remarkable basketball, as he’s scored at least 25 points in 28 consecutive games, and he’s averaging 29.8 ppg on the season. That includes a 38-point effort at Phoenix on Dec. 23, when Oklahoma City pulled out a 117-113 upset victory over the Suns as an 8½-point road underdog, ending a nine-game losing streak in this rivalry.
The Thunder are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings with Phoenix (all as an underdog) and 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 clashes. The Suns have not covered the spread in six straight visits to Oklahoma City (0-5-1 ATS).
Phoenix has failed to cover in four of its last five against teams from the Northwest Division, but other than that, it is on positive pointspread surges of 8-2 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-1 on Tuesday, 7-2 against the Western Conference, 6-2 versus winning teams and 5-0 when playing on one day of rest.
Oklahoma City is on ATS upticks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against the Western Conference, 4-1 versus Pacific Division opponents, 35-15-1 on Tuesday, 35-16-1 after a non-cover and 10-1 against winning teams.
The high-scoring Suns have stayed under the total in eight straight games overall, five straight on the road, seven straight against Western Conference foes, four straight when playing on one day of rest and six of eight on Tuesday. The under is also 19-7 in Oklahoma City’s last 26 games against winning teams, 10-3 in the last 13 meetings between these squads and 5-1 in the last six series battles at the Ford Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY and UNDER
